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beyond flattening the curve – preserve our parents

the corona crisis faces us with new and radical situations in society. The state to the art procedure is ‘flattening the curve’. An idea that is based on exponential epidemic infection and linear and budget restricted capacities of the health system. This is an effective strategy with a homogeneous instruction. Reasoning about risk management could lead to flexible handling of different risks. With the analysis of specific risks it is obvious, that it is impossible to diminish risks. And with managing risks you should be aware, that you have to take a risk in the end. Covid19 is a virus…

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motivation or interest

Zero or negative interest is said to be a lack of currency demand. The question for central bank economists should be why? Obviously, with a high savings ratio there is no need of immediate credits. It is crucial to think about cause and effect of economic actions to find a direction out of the currency conundrum. The policy of the ECB is making credits as cheap as possible to set an impulse to new investments and, on the other hand, setting a price to savings. Take this description into our daily lives. Would you stop saving money because of the…

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From point of reference to point of no return

Global climate change is a fact for scientists and also for most people. Now the aching question is what to do? The German government released a program lately that is characterized by a series of annual, moderate increasing steps in the direction of the rising problem. This strategy is based on the idea of adaption and does not include the anthropogenic active part in the core of the agenda. The idea of (co-)evolution is very different to adaption, because it is always based on active niche setting. With moderate steps to the adaption on global climate change, the political acceptance…

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mean square value

It’s funny how eager we are focused on our property rights ignoring the fact, that lately after Bretton Woods no natural prices exist. The value of our property rights is exclusively determined by the value of all other property rights as the Ricardian idea of a natural, intrinsic and therefore minimum price is blown away by an unfounded cash generation. A rage in discussion always rises with ideas of welfare contribution through legal reallocation setting the conflict into a separation of individual and social. The determination of our values is closer to probabilities with the point of reference of the…

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Statistics for Self-Marketing3

Dollar Pills! Nave, G.; Nadler, A.; Dubois, D.; Zava, D.; Camerer, C.; Plassmann, H.; 2018; “Single-dose testosterone administration increases men’s preference for status goods”; 2433; Nature Communications; 2041-1723; 9/1; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04923-0 In this paper it is argued, that a complex biological process of hormonal impact directly influences a complex sociological process of social status by consumption. The authors asked male test persons for different descriptions of brands ignoring that status in society is combined out of different characteristics such as quality and power itself. They produced an index of social status out of status itself and conspicuousness and prestige as well…

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Statistics for Self-Marketing2

In the first section of ‘Statistics for Self-Marketing’, we saw how to find significance quite everywhere out of big and irrelevant data combined with ignorance of statistical preconditions. Now it’s getting more sophisticated. We have a clear plan what to proof and searching for a scientific proof. First you should see the difference to science. The main task is not to clarify the own doubts with the awareness of a fragile and unknown truth, but to do a business. Unfortunately big parts of science follow this strategy either by individual self-marketing through ‘portfolio education’ or by institutional lecture marketing through…

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Nudging screws to nails

Again psychological economy got a Nobel Price. I am a fan of Kahneman and all the others like Tversky, Slovic and last but not least Thaler – and all the others I do not remind in the first second. What happens lately from my personal point of view is, that in contrast to the founders of psychological economy, today behavioral economics comes along as a white knight of science. Kahneman et al. wanted to widen the economical behavioral concept to get better explanations on an aggregate level. This is still the extraordinary advantage of economy to ignore individuality and find…

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Systematic Election

From a systematic point of view, the gathering for option surveys of politicians is following the agenda of democracy. The only aim of politicians is creating majorities in a democratic process, based on individual preferences. However, we don’t like these kind of politicians, following the path of democratic opportunism. We all are looking for political representatives with fundamental values and norms, suitable for a personal feeling of being decisive. Even those having read the Arrow’s theorem and being aware of this extraordinary intellectual analysis, think of it as a mathematical model and not a problematic description of real democracy. In…

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Statistics for Self-Marketing 1

Today it is crucial to produce extraordinary information. With the structural coupling of (only) positive feedback in social media, a forced exaggeration is taking place for not drowning in a sea of tweets. This is also true for scientific publishing with a focus on successful studies and the run for a marathon publication list. A key feature for this is statistics. One of my favorite paper to this topic is: ‘Matthews, R.; 2000; “Storks Deliver Babies (p= 0.008)”; 36-38; Teaching Statistics; 1467-9639; 22/2; link‘. In this paper, it is ‘proofed’ that there is a highly significant correlation between the number…

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Plush Toy Moralism

Plush Toy

One of the main argumentations for a veggie life is the respect to animals. With a change in your diet, the suffering of animals can be avoided. In some cases, the moral supremacy to carnivores is boost to a categorical distinction between good and evil. The magnitude of emotional sentiments is sometimes really astonishing – maybe because a lack of sacrosanct believes. But this is not the theme here. The argumentation to diminish the pain of creatures that are suffering is straight forward and just a small expansion of an anthropogenic justification. A categorical difference between man and animal is…

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