SEIR will be society
modelling society should be based on social science theory because correlation is not causation. Maths and Physics are crucial but not enough
Category: S2n – Blog
follow the white rabbit…
For a couple of weeks we are ruled by models. Here some zoning out of my latest readings… “In chemistry, one molecule is very like another, and the only difference is their spatial location. Dissipative structures in chemistry (Nicolis & Prigogine, 1977) can create spatio-temporal patterns because of this. But populations of organisms differ in an infinite number of ways. Firstly in location, but also in age, size, strength, speed, colour etc. and so this means that whenever a population, X, is being decreased by the action of some particular predator or environmental change, then the individuals that are most…
Small world and the virus app
For relaxing social distancing because of corona an app for tracking contacts is in debate. The theoretical background of the app is obvious, but the practical advice underlies the ‘small world’ phenomena of exponential growth, just like the virus itself. Let’s take an example. The app traces our contacts during incubation time of two weeks and all critical situations are detected and stored. This is quite a long time so even with social distancing we need to go shopping or at work in this period. If we take an arbitrary number of 100 suspected contacts during two weeks, it would…
Logic of Place and the Virus
In these times we are afraid of the virus and looking in shock at the number of infected persons. Quite everybody knows the name Johns Hopkins and the latest lethal rate, which is in most cases a legitimation of our acting towards the growth of these numbers. We try to find an adequate response to the subject of this virus out of these aggregate numbers. The virus is characterized and defined out of a subject logic, as Kitaro Nishida would say. The awareness of the entity is a defined and objective system. The response strategy, of not overloading the medical…
beyond flattening the curve – preserve our parents
the corona crisis faces us with new and radical situations in society. The state to the art procedure is ‘flattening the curve’. An idea that is based on exponential epidemic infection and linear and budget restricted capacities of the health system. This is an effective strategy with a homogeneous instruction. Reasoning about risk management could lead to flexible handling of different risks. With the analysis of specific risks it is obvious, that it is impossible to diminish risks. And with managing risks you should be aware, that you have to take a risk in the end. Covid19 is a virus…
motivation or interest
Zero or negative interest is said to be a lack of currency demand. The question for central bank economists should be why? Obviously, with a high savings ratio there is no need of immediate credits. It is crucial to think about cause and effect of economic actions to find a direction out of the currency conundrum. The policy of the ECB is making credits as cheap as possible to set an impulse to new investments and, on the other hand, setting a price to savings. Take this description into our daily lives. Would you stop saving money because of the…
From point of reference to point of no return
Global climate change is a fact for scientists and also for most people. Now the aching question is what to do? The German government released a program lately that is characterized by a series of annual, moderate increasing steps in the direction of the rising problem. This strategy is based on the idea of adaption and does not include the anthropogenic active part in the core of the agenda. The idea of (co-)evolution is very different to adaption, because it is always based on active niche setting. With moderate steps to the adaption on global climate change, the political acceptance…
mean square value
It’s funny how eager we are focused on our property rights ignoring the fact, that lately after Bretton Woods no natural prices exist. The value of our property rights is exclusively determined by the value of all other property rights as the Ricardian idea of a natural, intrinsic and therefore minimum price is blown away by an unfounded cash generation. A rage in discussion always rises with ideas of welfare contribution through legal reallocation setting the conflict into a separation of individual and social. The determination of our values is closer to probabilities with the point of reference of the…
Statistics for Self-Marketing3
Dollar Pills! Nave, G.; Nadler, A.; Dubois, D.; Zava, D.; Camerer, C.; Plassmann, H.; 2018; “Single-dose testosterone administration increases men’s preference for status goods”; 2433; Nature Communications; 2041-1723; 9/1; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04923-0 In this paper it is argued, that a complex biological process of hormonal impact directly influences a complex sociological process of social status by consumption. The authors asked male test persons for different descriptions of brands ignoring that status in society is combined out of different characteristics such as quality and power itself. They produced an index of social status out of status itself and conspicuousness and prestige as well…
Statistics for Self-Marketing2
In the first section of ‘Statistics for Self-Marketing’, we saw how to find significance quite everywhere out of big and irrelevant data combined with ignorance of statistical preconditions. Now it’s getting more sophisticated. We have a clear plan what to proof and searching for a scientific proof. First you should see the difference to science. The main task is not to clarify the own doubts with the awareness of a fragile and unknown truth, but to do a business. Unfortunately big parts of science follow this strategy either by individual self-marketing through ‘portfolio education’ or by institutional lecture marketing through…
follow the white rabbit…
For a couple of weeks we are ruled by models. Here some zoning out of my latest readings… “In chemistry, one molecule is very like another, and the only difference is their spatial location. Dissipative structures in chemistry (Nicolis & Prigogine, 1977) can create spatio-temporal patterns because of this. But populations of organisms differ in an infinite number of ways. Firstly in location, but also in age, size, strength, speed, colour etc. and so this means that whenever a population, X, is being decreased by the action of some particular predator or environmental change, then the individuals that are most…
Small world and the virus app
For relaxing social distancing because of corona an app for tracking contacts is in debate. The theoretical background of the app is obvious, but the practical advice underlies the ‘small world’ phenomena of exponential growth, just like the virus itself. Let’s take an example. The app traces our contacts during incubation time of two weeks and all critical situations are detected and stored. This is quite a long time so even with social distancing we need to go shopping or at work in this period. If we take an arbitrary number of 100 suspected contacts during two weeks, it would…
Logic of Place and the Virus
In these times we are afraid of the virus and looking in shock at the number of infected persons. Quite everybody knows the name Johns Hopkins and the latest lethal rate, which is in most cases a legitimation of our acting towards the growth of these numbers. We try to find an adequate response to the subject of this virus out of these aggregate numbers. The virus is characterized and defined out of a subject logic, as Kitaro Nishida would say. The awareness of the entity is a defined and objective system. The response strategy, of not overloading the medical…
beyond flattening the curve – preserve our parents
the corona crisis faces us with new and radical situations in society. The state to the art procedure is ‘flattening the curve’. An idea that is based on exponential epidemic infection and linear and budget restricted capacities of the health system. This is an effective strategy with a homogeneous instruction. Reasoning about risk management could lead to flexible handling of different risks. With the analysis of specific risks it is obvious, that it is impossible to diminish risks. And with managing risks you should be aware, that you have to take a risk in the end. Covid19 is a virus…
motivation or interest
Zero or negative interest is said to be a lack of currency demand. The question for central bank economists should be why? Obviously, with a high savings ratio there is no need of immediate credits. It is crucial to think about cause and effect of economic actions to find a direction out of the currency conundrum. The policy of the ECB is making credits as cheap as possible to set an impulse to new investments and, on the other hand, setting a price to savings. Take this description into our daily lives. Would you stop saving money because of the…
From point of reference to point of no return
Global climate change is a fact for scientists and also for most people. Now the aching question is what to do? The German government released a program lately that is characterized by a series of annual, moderate increasing steps in the direction of the rising problem. This strategy is based on the idea of adaption and does not include the anthropogenic active part in the core of the agenda. The idea of (co-)evolution is very different to adaption, because it is always based on active niche setting. With moderate steps to the adaption on global climate change, the political acceptance…
mean square value
It’s funny how eager we are focused on our property rights ignoring the fact, that lately after Bretton Woods no natural prices exist. The value of our property rights is exclusively determined by the value of all other property rights as the Ricardian idea of a natural, intrinsic and therefore minimum price is blown away by an unfounded cash generation. A rage in discussion always rises with ideas of welfare contribution through legal reallocation setting the conflict into a separation of individual and social. The determination of our values is closer to probabilities with the point of reference of the…
Statistics for Self-Marketing3
Dollar Pills! Nave, G.; Nadler, A.; Dubois, D.; Zava, D.; Camerer, C.; Plassmann, H.; 2018; “Single-dose testosterone administration increases men’s preference for status goods”; 2433; Nature Communications; 2041-1723; 9/1; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04923-0 In this paper it is argued, that a complex biological process of hormonal impact directly influences a complex sociological process of social status by consumption. The authors asked male test persons for different descriptions of brands ignoring that status in society is combined out of different characteristics such as quality and power itself. They produced an index of social status out of status itself and conspicuousness and prestige as well…
Statistics for Self-Marketing2
In the first section of ‘Statistics for Self-Marketing’, we saw how to find significance quite everywhere out of big and irrelevant data combined with ignorance of statistical preconditions. Now it’s getting more sophisticated. We have a clear plan what to proof and searching for a scientific proof. First you should see the difference to science. The main task is not to clarify the own doubts with the awareness of a fragile and unknown truth, but to do a business. Unfortunately big parts of science follow this strategy either by individual self-marketing through ‘portfolio education’ or by institutional lecture marketing through…